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Hurricane Ike


Vlad

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Well, not even a week has gone by since Gustav made landfall in Southern Louisiana and now we have to worry about Ike. Anyway for now it is slated to impact parts of Cuba and perhaps even the Florida Keys, before re-entering the Gulf Coast and perhaps re-strengthen due to the warm ocean currents and that "Sweet Spot" where hurricanes explode into monsters. That wasn't the case this year with Gustav fortunately and hopefully it will be the same story for Ike as well. Right now its just way too early to tell where it will go, I'll definitely update this thread as warranted as Ike makes its way closer to the United States...

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Um, Gustav weakened as forecast because there was *less* heat available in the Gulf than there was in the eastern Caribbean.

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2008249go.jpg

 

(This is the most recent map, but the general pattern is the same.)

 

Intensity forecast at this point is the usual almost-crapshoot, but it appears something similar will happen with Ike.

 

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early2.png

 

Not that Ike is going to be anything to sneeze about, but I'd be surprised if it ends up being a monster. I *have* been wrong before, though....

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Well, not even a week has gone by since Gustav made landfall in Southern Louisiana and now we have to worry about Ike. Anyway for now it is slated to impact parts of Cuba and perhaps even the Florida Keys, before re-entering the Gulf Coast and perhaps re-strengthen due to the warm ocean currents and that "Sweet Spot" where hurricanes explode into monsters. That wasn't the case this year with Gustav fortunately and hopefully it will be the same story for Ike as well. Right now its just way too early to tell where it will go, I'll definitely update this thread as warranted as Ike makes its way closer to the United States...

 

And Ike's already a Cat 4 monster. Man, they just dodged a bullet (at least compared to Katrina) and now the Gulf's got this thing gunning for it.

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Well thankfully for the United States, Ike will be passing directly over Cuba so therefore it will weaken significantly in fact perhaps all the way down to a Category 1 storm as it will be interacting with land for the next day or two. And if it makes it out to the Gulf, it will probably struggle to gain strength depending on the state of the upper atmosphere, which basically choked Gustav into strengthening like Katrina did three years ago... If the upper atmosphere is calm, and Ike passes over that so called "Sweet Spot" in the Gulf of Mexico, then it will likely quickly restrengthen and become at most a Category 3. However if the winds of the upper atmosphere are rough, then it will prohibit Thunderstorms from forming and thus preventing Ike from strengthening as quickly... then it will probably become a Category 2 before making landfall somewhere in the Gulf, hopefully not the same area in which Gustav made landfall.

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Well thankfully for the United States, Ike will be passing directly over Cuba so therefore it will weaken significantly in fact perhaps all the way down to a Category 1 storm as it will be interacting with land for the next day or two. And if it makes it out to the Gulf, it will probably struggle to gain strength depending on the state of the upper atmosphere, which basically choked Gustav into strengthening like Katrina did three years ago... If the upper atmosphere is calm, and Ike passes over that so called "Sweet Spot" in the Gulf of Mexico, then it will likely quickly restrengthen and become at most a Category 3. However if the winds of the upper atmosphere are rough, then it will prohibit Thunderstorms from forming and thus preventing Ike from strengthening as quickly... then it will probably become a Category 2 before making landfall somewhere in the Gulf, hopefully not the same area in which Gustav made landfall.

 

What I saw today had Ike pointing toward southern Texas near the border.

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Well looks like Ike is really starting to pick up some steam now, according to the Hurricane Hunters, the central pressure of the storm has dropped down to 947, and that is the equivalent of the strength of a typical strong Category 3 to a low-end Category 4. So this means that Ike is intensifying very rapidly. The Gulf of Mexico is among the hottest body of water in the Atlantic Basin all thanks to the loop current which basically channels in very hot water from the Caribbean to that part of the Gulf. The hurricane then basically feeds off of this very hot and soupy water and explodes into a monster.

 

Many are forecasting this thing to become at least a Category 3 Extensive Hurricane prior to making landfall somewhere in the Eastern Texas Coast on Saturday Morning. The track puts it near the North End of Texas to the Central End of the Texas Coastline. This storm is also extremely large in fact bigger than even larger than Katrina, Rita, and almost comparable to the size of Wilma which was the most intense storm ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean. Typically when central pressures of these gigantic storms get incredibly low it takes several hours for the winds to react and speed up because of the coverage area that is needed to give these storms the necessary momentum.

 

Also another thing to take into factor is the amount of energy required to stregthen these storms because of their massive size. Katrina and Rita were albeit smaller so therefore the amount of time it took for them to stregthen was significantly less than that of this storm. So although the Winds are currently at 100mph and the pressure is pretty low at only 947, it will take some time before those winds react to the pressure gradient and therefore increase in speed.

 

So here is the current information for Hurricane Ike:

 

HURRICANE IKE

8PM EDT - WED, 9/10/08

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORY

 

Location: 615mi SSE of Galveston, TX

NOTE: This is the relative distance of the center eye of the storm to those above locations, not the distance from the outer edge and rainbands, which is obviously much closer.

Winds: 100mph

Central Pressure: 947mb

Movement: NW at 8mph

 

So based on the current conditions comparing to this time yesterday, the winds have only increased by 20 miles per hour and the central pressure has dropped from 997 to 947 so the pressure has dropped fairly quickly within 24 hours but the winds remain unchanged, again the reason for this is because of the massive size of the system and it takes several hours for the winds to react with increased speeds to that pressure difference.

 

So bottom line, expect a Major Hurricane to make impact somewhere in the East Coast of Texas. Hopefully it can weaken before it makes the landfall. And hopefully it won't become another Katrina or even a Rita, but only time will tell what this thing is going to do. Again my thoughts and concerns are out to those who are in Ike's path.

 

We do have people in this forum who reside in that area (Corpus Christi, Galveston, Port Lavaca, and Houston) so I hope they are taking cover and are starting to at least plan ahead because this thing has the potential to cause extensive damage to that part of Texas. Hopefully they'll do the smart thing and evacuate Tomorrow or early Friday the latest before things start to deteriorate late Friday evening into Saturday Morning when the storm makes its way over land.

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I could very well come ashore as a category 3 hurricane early Saturday morning. If it doesn't, because of the size of the storm, it would very likely push a category 3 or 4 storm surge ashore, similar to what Katrina did in 2005.

 

at200809_surge.gifImage: weatherunderground.com

 

In late August (just prior to Gustav), an eddy of very warm (at depth) sea water broke off from the loop current, which flows through the Yucatan Channel and around Cuba, and is helping warm the western waters of the Gulf. Ike could potentially tap into this very warm water, which would help strengthen the storm before landfall. The latest POES-satellite sea-surface temperatures show 30+ C water just off the coast of Texas near the area of Ike's track. This could be enhanced SST's from the loop current eddy and would help strengthen the storm and allow it to keep its strength through landfall.

 

20.jpg POES Sea Surface Temperatures: NOAA-National Hurricane Center.

 

al09wind.gifImage: crownweather.com

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They are saying that Ike is going to make landfall in Freeport Texas (Brazoria County), which is an hour away from Houston on TX-288. If this landfall does happen, this would be the first major hurricane (cat3 or higher) to actually hit within the Houston area since Alicia in 1983. Kinda erie, 25 years after the last one and now a major one coming.

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They are saying that Ike is going to make landfall in Freeport Texas (Brazoria County), which is an hour away from Houston on TX-288. If this landfall does happen, this would be the first major hurricane (cat3 or higher) to actually hit within the Houston area since Alicia in 1983. Kinda erie, 25 years after the last one and now a major one coming.

 

I can't believe that my place of birth is where the storm will make landfall.

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