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Oliverolang

Hurricane Gustav

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Here are a few predictions according to The Weather Channel and The Hurricane Center:

 

Hanna is expected to become subtropical or perhaps a very weak Tropical Depression before making its appearance here in the Northeast. So that will only make it primarily a rain event. Nor'easters which we usually have several times a year are usually stronger than Tropical Depression or Extratropical systems so this is really nothing to worry about.

 

Hanna is not as strong because the wind shear and dry air from the southwest has been preventing it from strengthening further more, which explains why it looks disorganized and it doesn't have that classic radar and satellite identifiable look that a Tropical System normally has. Secondly it will not strike Florida. Although it will generate some potentially dangerous rip currents, it is not expected to strike the eastern Florida coast. It is expected to make landfall somewhere in North Carolina tomorrow afternoon into Saturday. Rip currents are possible in Georgia and South Carolina coasts. In fact the entire Mid-Atlantic region can expect some rip currents throughout the weekend.

 

The storm is also moving incredibly fast due to a very strong High Pressure system that is situated near Bermuda, which is basically steering the storm here, which also explains why it's been so incredibly hot lately here in the Mid-Atlantic, extremely warm temperatures for this time of year. The warm sultry air from the south is also being driven here to the north due to that High Pressure that is situated over the Western Atlantic near Bermuda. Since the storm is moving fairly quickly, it is likely that Hanna will remain as a Tropical Storm when it makes landfall in North Carolina tomorrow. It is not sitting in the warm ocean waters so therefore, it is not expected to strengthen as much. So since its moving very fast the only thing we all can probably expect from this is just a rainy day, which we can use since its been pretty dry here all week, it will be very similar to a Nor'easter, except the winds are coming from the South instead of the North and thus it's not going to be extremely cooler afterwards as is associated with Nor'easters.

 

Ike albeit, a much smaller storm than Gustav and Frances back in 2004,however still poses a threat to Florida. It is thankfully expected to weaken though before it strikes that area, because it is encountering that same wind shear (strong upper level winds in the upper atmosphere that hinder thunderstorm development) and dry air that prevented Hanna from strengthening. It also all depends on the speed of Ike. If Ike continues to move at 15 - 18 mph it will likely strike Florida and probably enter the Gulf of Mexico and then hit the Florida Panhandle, similar to the path that Hurricane Frances made back in 2004, since the High Pressure influence will steer it to the north as well, although it is further away due to the faster speed.

 

However it slows down that will be the best case scenerio, as it will get caught up with the strong High Pressure system just like Hanna and move towards the Northeast. And being that the High Pressure system will be moving further out east in the open Atlantic, it will therefore move Ike in the middle Atlantic away from land, the worst that can happen in this scenario, is Florida's east coast being brushed by rain bands from Ike, thankfully it is a smaller storm though so that may not even happen.

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Quit with the bolding or I will revoke your bolding privileges...

 

I'm REALLY scared....

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Vlad, you're incorrect, I think. WINS and WCBS-AM say they're expecting 45-60 mile an hour sustained winds in the New York area, areas either have TS warnings or watches. IIRC, that's TS strength.

 

Regarding post format, you forgot the obligatory ",lol", Sam.

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So Hanna is all but confirmed to hit the east coast as a category 2 storm, and Ike is most likely going to hit Florida as a cat 4. Surprise: no threads for them! Makes sense though as we're not going to see the same media splooge when FL gets thrashed as we did for Gustav. Might as well mirror the media we talk about, amirite?

 

Guess it's not really anything to be worried about since it's not going to hit poor, ol' NOLA.

 

Right because the media didn't go nuts over four hurricanes in a matter of weeks over south Florida in 2004.

 

Gimme a break.

 

The only reason Gustav warranted the attention was because of the forecast strength (which didn't bear out, primarily because of the Gustav's interaction with Cuba late Saturday/early Sunday. If Gustav had not passed over Cuba, the storm most certainly would have struck Louisiana as a category 3 or 4 storm) and the promiximity (in years) to Hurricane Katrina.

 

Hanna may well come ashore along the Carolinas as a very weak category 1 hurricane, but more likely a strong tropical storm. There are tropical storm watches up for Long Island, NY and coastal Massachusetts for the weekend since the storm is forecast to quickly move up the east coast and out to sea.

 

The latest modelling on Ike suggests the storm could pass through the Florida Straits (between Cuba and the Keys) or directly impact the keys then move into the Gulf of Mexico before recurving toward the Gulf Coast.

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Vlad, you're incorrect, I think. WINS and WCBS-AM say they're expecting 45-60 mile an hour sustained winds in the New York area, areas either have TS warnings or watches. IIRC, that's TS strength.

 

Regarding post format, you forgot the obligatory ",lol", Sam.

 

You are right DMA, the storm is expected to strengthen into a hurricane actually before it makes landfall early tomorrow morning on the south coast of North Carolina. This was not forecasted to occur yesterday when I made that incredibly long post, lol.

 

It just goes to show how weather forecasting can be incredibly difficult. Yesterday they were saying that the storm would become subtropical before reaching New York, and today they are saying that it may likely strike us as a Tropical Storm. And now 24 hours later, tropical storm watches are in effect for the entire New England and Mid-Atlantic Coastlines, while Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for South Jersey and below... So that means that Tropical Storm conditions are expected to occur within 36 - 48 hours. But the outstanding news is that the storm although is expected to bring heavy rainfall into our area, it is expected to move very quickly, because of the strong High Pressure system that is steering the storm out of here. And after all it is only a tropical storm, the amount of rainfall we'll experience tomorrow is perhaps the equivalent of a Nor'easter, which we are all used to anyway... So I wouldn't worry to much about it... Its definitely not another Hurricane Gloria or a Hurricane Bob that we had back in the 80s and early 90s... The storm is expected to make landfall in New York perhaps in Long Island, late Saturday Night into Sunday Morning. So tomorrow is not a complete washout niether...

 

Vlad' date='[/b']

 

Why do you format your posts in such a ridiculous way? It really is kind of annoying.

 

 

Now going slightly offtopic, as for the bolding that I occasionally do, I did it to make emphasis on the important points, and it was also done to make the reading faster on a long post, so that way the reader can simply skim through without necessarily reading the entire post, as the most important points are highlighted in bold..., lol.

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