Jump to content

Hurricane Gustav


Oliverolang

Recommended Posts

My god, this is very very bad, it is now a Category 5 hurricane or at least is expected to become one very soon. Now everyone knows that this is extremely horrible news. Because it will have an effect on all of us in someway shape or form.

 

I don't even live in the Gulf Coast, but my deepest prayers and sympathies go out to everyone there because, my god, everyone who has lived through Hurricane Katrina was just an awful awful event (and sometimes comparable to the September 11th, disaster), and unfortunately Gustav will hit that storm torned area yet again, which is still to this day (3 years later) trying to recover ever so slightly, from the catastrophic effects of Katrina.

 

Thankfully according to the storm track the center of the storm isn't going to hit New Orleans directly, like Katrina did. But not hitting New Orleans, can mean sacrificing Houston which also has the potential to get hit, which is more populated than New Orleans, but fortunately for Houston the center of the storm track is further away from the city of Houston, so New Orleans unfortunately will get hurt again. Although the storm will more than likely effect the New Orleans metro area, the winds won't be as strong as the storm center (based solely, according to the current track which can always change) will not be over Lake Ponchatrain, like Katrina was, so perhaps the flooding will be less? Or maybe the storm will move out faster?

 

Regardless of these positives, nothing outweighs the fact of the matter that another Hurricane will strike the Gulf Coast again and its just something that I know no one over there wants to hear. Thankfully the current storm track puts the storm slightly to the west of where Katrina made landfall. And is moving northwest instead of northeast, like Katrina did. Also the storm isn't as strong as Katrina as of now according to barometric pressure. But again this is all preliminary information, who knows how strong this storm can be, it can be stronger than Katrina but lets certainly hope it does not ever reach the strength of Katrina or Rita. No one expected the storm to even develop into a Category 5 this morning so the storm is a bit unpredictable at this point, so we'll have to wait and see and hope for the best. I hope everyone evacuates on time and makes no silly permanent life altering mistakes that they made with Katrina thinking that they can ride this one out.

 

Right now it is unknown whether or not prevailing winds can ultimately shift the storm to the west or east. Its just way to early to tell. The storm is expected to make landfall sometime by Monday and Tuesday the latest next week and that is even bad news because its just going to sit on the very warm and soupy Gulf of Mexico and potentially explode into a monstrous storm.

 

Man, I really hope that it's not going to be as devastating as Katrina was because even if you do evacuate the area and your lives are saved, thats good but all peoples belongings, and their life, can be completely turned around within 48 hours, so its really something to just take a few moments to think about. Anyway I will keep watching The Weather Channel and the local news channels or whatever to keep an eye on this. Although I can't really help I am hoping to God, that it will not be a repeat of Katrina or Rita, because the people down there really do not deserve this after all they've been through already. Good luck and Godspeed to you all down there. I'll be watching and posting updates whenever I can.

 

Best Ragards,

Vlad

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's not going to land as a Cat 5,Vlad,it'll be a Cat 3 probably.. It seems like FEMA is getting it's act together, which hopefully will save lives.

 

Certainly hope so DMA. Katrina made landfall as a Cat 4 anyway so that is good news. The deeper the waters, the stronger the storm gets so as it moves closer ashore, the storm will weaken since the waters will become shallower which explains why Katrina weakened slightly before making landfall 3 years ago. And the center of the storm track as I said in the previous post thankfully is putting it west of the city. Which is good news for the highly populated area of New Orleans, but bad news for those in the western suburbs, but its better because its a less populated area and thus more lives will likely be saved if it continues this track.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is the current storm information from Wikipedia and The Weather Channel:

 

LAST UPDATED ON:

Saturday, August 30, 2008

at 9:00pm EDT.

 

HURRICANE GUSTAV

8:00pm Central Daylight Time Advisory

 

Category 4 Severe Hurricane

Location: 65mi Northeast of Havana Cuba, 570miles Southeast of North Central Gulf Coast.

Winds: 150mph

Pressure: 941mb

Movement: Northwest at 15mph

 

map_tropprjpath07_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well lets certainly hope that it doesn't take the path of the (BAMD) white line to the right of the lake or the path of the light blue line (BAMS), to the left of the Lake either of which is basically a close hit on New Orleans. Again niether of those lines are equivalent to the path of Katrina but who knows... they are hiding the line that can pass directly over the lake and cut directly to the center of the city to avoid scaring people. Anyway at this point no one really knows where it can hit so I guess we all should just hope for the best.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well lets certainly hope that it doesn't take the path of the (BAMD) white line to the right of the lake or the path of the light blue line (BAMS), to the left of the Lake either of which is basically a close hit on New Orleans. Again niether of those lines are equivalent to the path of Katrina but who knows... they are hiding the line that can pass directly over the lake and cut directly to the center of the city to avoid scaring people. Anyway at this point no one really knows where it can hit so I guess we all should just hope for the best.

 

It would actually be better for the city to have the storm pass almost directly overhead or to the east, than along its current path (or slightly to the east of the current path).

 

The physics of a Hurricane are such that the right front quadrant is the worst possibly location to be in a hurricane. Why?

 

Forward momentum of the storm is added to the rotation making the winds that much faster in that quadrant. If the storm were to impact New Orleans, directly (as basically happened with Katrina), the Mississippi Gulf Coast would receive the brunt of the storm surge and wind damage (as happened with Katrina).

 

On it's current path, New Orleans is somewhat protected from major storm surge by about 150 miles or so of coastline.

 

2813315976_87c825494a_m.jpg (Image1: Current landfall trajectory near Houma, Louisana. Red arrows indicate rotation and storm surge movement)

 

A slight move east for a landfall, would negatively impact New Orleans as storm surge would likely flow into Lake Borgne and Lake Ponchatrain from the gulf.

 

2813315858_aa29f5daaf_m.jpg (Image2: Landfall at Buras, Louisiana using same trajectory as official landfall forecast. Katrina made landfall at Buras, LA 8/29/05, however the trajectory was almost perpindicular to this one. Katrina eventually made a second landfall near Waveland, MS)

 

If the storm were to strike New Orleans directly, it would be spared most of the storm surge damage but would see major wind damage. The Mississippi Gulf Coast would be severely impacted by storm surge

 

2813316072_178558ff29_m.jpg(Image3: Landfall at New Orleans, Louisiana.)

 

This isn't to say that New Orleans would not be damaged by a landfall of Gustav directly overhead. Tidal action from the storm in Lake Ponchatrain could again damage levees, only recently rebuilt after Katrina. The city is smart to begin evacuations now, rather than later, as even a move east of 50 miles from the center-line forecast track could spell major problems for New Orleans.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I noticed though something on the Radar Imagery tonight that the storm might have shrunk a little bit and started to make a slight turn to the Northeast. I know that Key West water temps yesterday were at 89 degrees and all up and down the Florida Coast out about 150 miles its around 87-89 degrees. Its actually colder towards New Orleans down to around 81. Maybe Im crazy for thinking this, but maybe theres a chance for the storm to go through Gulfport and put NOLA on the western side. And with Houston getting hit, just for a reminder, its been 25 years since Alicia hit, the last major hurricane in Southeast Texas. Last big storm to go through was Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 where it dumped 38" of rain within a very short amount of time.

 

Plus the Hurricane Watch is from High Island to the Alabama/Florida Border.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Obviously, Gustav has had major impacts on the networks' RNC coverage plans. The convention itself will hold an abbreviated session Monday afternoon, while the schedule beyond then is uncertain.

 

CBS

• CBS EVENING NEWS Anchor and Managing Editor Katie Couric will report from the Gulf coast beginning tomorrow on the CBS EVENING NEWS WITH KATIE COURIC.

 

• CBS News Correspondents Cynthia Bowers, Randall Pinkston, Byron Pitts, Dave Price, Tracy Smith and Hari Sreenivasan will report from the area for all CBS News broadcasts.

 

• THE EARLY SHOW's Harry Smith will anchor from the area beginning tomorrow morning, along with EARLY SHOW Weather Anchor Price.

 

• CBS News' live Republican National Convention primetime specials Monday, Sept. 1 through Thursday, Sept. 4 will include coverage of both the hurricane and the RNC.

 

• Tonight's CBS EVENING NEWS will be anchored by Russ Mitchell from New York, with Bob Schieffer contributing from St. Paul.

 

ABC

• Charles Gibson will report from New Orleans on WORLD NEWS tonight and tomorrow.

 

• George Stephanopoulos will anchor from the Republican National Convention in St. Paul.

 

• GOOD MORNING AMERICA weather anchor Sam Champion and news anchor Chris Cuomo will report live from New Orleans tomorrow. Diane Sawyer and Robin Roberts will anchor from Times Square in New York.

 

• NIGHTLINE co-anchor Terry Moran will report live from New Orleans.

 

• ABC News anchors and correspondents Bill Weir, Dan Harris, David Kerley, Jeffrey Kofman, Terry McCarthy, Steve Osunsami, Barbara Pinto, and Mike Von Fremd will continue to report from the storm front.

 

NBC

• NBC NIGHTLY NEWS anchor and managing editor Brian Williams will report from the Gulf coast beginning tonight.

 

• NBC News anchors Ann Curry, Lester Holt, and Al Roker; and a team of correspondents including Contessa Brewer, Don Teague, Janet Shamlian, Kerry Sanders, Lee Cowan, Mark Potter, Mary Murray, Michelle Kosinski, and others will be on location. Coverage will extend across MSNBC, NBC News networks, WeatherPlus, and The Weather Channel.

 

• Tom Brokaw will anchor coverage from the RNC live in St. Paul. He will be joined by Andrea Mitchell, Chuck Todd, David Gregory, John Yang, Luke Russert, Kelly O'Donnell, Mike Taibbi, Savannah Guthrie, and Tom Costello.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the media is prepared and the city itself is prepared. The city of New Orleans is virtually a ghost town right now. According to the government over there over 1 million people who live in the New Orleans Metro Area has evacuated, so that is certainly uplifting. The Damage unfortunately is inevitable so when those evacuees return to their homes, to see them significantly damaged or perhaps even destroyed will be gut wrenching. Now for those people who were foolish enough to stay in harms way and remain in the area, they will not have any sort of shelter to seek as a last resort, so I certainly hope they ride this out, they need to start praying for the best. Another good thing is that the storm is significantly weaker than it was this time yesterday. The wind speeds have significantly diminished thanks to the landfall that it made in the western tobacco fields in Cuba. The storm is also albeit more disorganized than that of Katrina and isn't as impressive looking nor has a well defined eye that Katrina had prior to its landfall so that is all certainly outstanding news. Gustav won't pack that punch that many thought it would've. But that still does not necesarilly mean that the disaster is averted, there is still an outstanding number of factors that can still cause considerable to catastrophic damage to many parts of the area.

 

As we speak a Tornado Warning is already in effect in New Orleans and The Weather Channel has begun "Storm Alert" mode. So this is very serious business. At this point we can all only hope that its not going to produce the same amount of damage as Katrina. Here is the current advisory:

 

HURRICANE GUSTAV

7:00PM CDT ADVISORY

Category 3 - MAJOR HURRICANE

LOCATION: 175mi. SSE of The Mississippi River's Mouth & 260mi. SSE of New Orleans, LA.

WINDS: 115mph with Gusts up to 145mph.

PRESSURE: 952 mbar

MOVEMENT: NW 17mph

map_tropinfo07_ltst_5nhato_enus_600x405.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I added the graphics (cities and title bars) to these maps after capturing the radar from GRLevel3.

 

 

SAradar2.jpg

 

SAstormtotals.jpg

 

For storm totals -moderate green indicates 1" of rain, where as pink indicates 8", and white 11". Sorry I forgot to put the colorbar on the banner.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Me and my family got through the storm okay. The power just went back on!

 

Glad you made it out fine. And relieved this was nothing like Katrina.

 

Lucky you with the power, we lost power for 2 weeks thanks to Wilma.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Glad it wasn't as bad as we all thought it would've been. Glad you and are family is safe too Oliver. Anyway the Weather Channel has returned to normal operations and is no longer in "Storm Alert" mode. There are still a few more storms that are threatening the US though, including Hurricane Hanna and Tropical Storm Ike and a possible Tropical Storm Josephine as well. I guess we can start respective threads for them if they pose a threat to the US.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So Hanna is all but confirmed to hit the east coast as a category 2 storm, and Ike is most likely going to hit Florida as a cat 4. Surprise: no threads for them! Makes sense though as we're not going to see the same media splooge when FL gets thrashed as we did for Gustav. Might as well mirror the media we talk about, amirite?

 

Guess it's not really anything to be worried about since it's not going to hit poor, ol' NOLA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does anyone know what strength Hanna will have when it passes NYC, to the right? I assume it would be a weak tropical storm by then. It's been a while since we've gotten a hit, one of the ones a few years ago only created rough seas for the majority of the area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yeah -- not worth worrying about.

 

If Hanna weren't as disorganized a storm and it maintained the coastal track that's expected, it would probably hit Long Island and southern New England as a category 1 hurricane.

 

As it is now, it'll be an epic nor'easter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If Hanna weren't as disorganized a storm and it maintained the coastal track that's expected, it would probably hit Long Island and southern New England as a category 1 hurricane.

 

As it is now, it'll be an epic nor'easter.

 

I though nor'easters are cold core, extratropical cyclones, like a weak orcan?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I though nor'easters are cold core, extratropical cyclones, like a weak orcan?

 

You're right, but classically and in a non-meteorological sense a nor'easter is any cyclonic storm delivering winds from the northeast. When a cyclonic storm engages the northeast - extratropical or tropical -- the terminology, nomenclature, and even the actual meteorology is almost always skewed. A good example of this is the 1991 Halloween Nor'easter (a.k.a. the Perfect Storm). While it began as a cold core, extratropical cyclone -- a true nor'easter -- it developed into a category 1 tropical hurricane.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue. By using TVNewsTalk you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.